Addlestone's Political Current

What more efficient way to divide opinions on a place than to point out its political leanings? With roughly half the country's population being of a red disposition and the other being blue at any one moment, revealing where a town lies on the political spectrum will spark instant admiration in one half and revulsion in the other (or at least among those who could care a hang either way). So it's with some apprehension that I present to you Addlestone's results in this year's local elections on 3rd May.

Due to its population size, Addlestone is split into two wards of just over 8,000 people each: Addlestone Bourneside and Addlestone North. Addlestone North represents the northern part of the town, Addlestone Bourneside represents the south. This begs the question, why not just call Addlestone Bourneside 'Addlestone South'? This puts an enormous amount of pressure on Addlestonians to find the correct polling station, especially as the ward boundary runs diagonally rather than horizontally, not to mention that most residents are probably oblivious as to what the term 'Bourneside' refers to (if they're anything like me, that is).

Addlestone wards within Runnymede within Surrey

It is in fact the River Bourne, which runs through Addlestone more or less parallel to the town's (and the borough of Runnymede's) eastern border, which is itself represented by the River Wey.

The River Bourne that runs through Addlestone is not to be confused with the River Bourne that runs through neighbouring Chertsey. These are two separate rivers which just happen to have identical names. Oh, and they join at one end. Definitely two separate rivers.

Just to add to the confusion, both River Bournes aren't rivers at all, but streams, as the word bourne (Anglo-Saxon: 'stream') would suggest. Some believe this is what inspired Robert Ludlum to write his spy fiction thriller The Bourne Identity.

But enough about troubled waters and tenuous pop culture references. The results were as follows:

Addlestone North
2012: Official Monster Raving Loony Party 9% | Lib 12% | Lab 34% | Con 45% (turnout: 24%)

        2011: Monster Raving Loony Party 3% | Lib 11% | Lab 28% | Con 58% (turnout: 35%)

        2010: [also general election] Lib 42% | Con 58% (turnout: 61%)

        2009: [county + European elections]

        2008: UKIP 7% | Lib 12% | Lab 16% | Con 65% (turnout: 28%)

Addlestone Bourneside

2012: Lib 10% | Lab 32% | Con 58% (turnout: 28%)

        2011:  Lib 11% | Lab 28% | Con 61% (turnout: 39%)

        2010: [also general election] Lib 31% | Con 68% (turnout: 64%)

        2009: [county + European elections]

        2008: Indie 10% | Lab 66% | Con 72% (turnout: 33%)

A number of conclusions can be drawn from these results. Firstly, the Monster Raving Loony Party thinks it has a chance in Addlestone North. They may well be right, as their share of the vote has increased threefold since last year, even with the same parties in opposition. In fact they seem to have gained support solely at the expense of the Conservatives in what has been a staunchly Conservative area for 14 years. The OMRLP candidate subsequently offered an insight into his success in a comment on a Get Surrey article:

"not many of the candidates did make an effort, but I did, over 2,000 flyers were posted though (sic) letters (sic) boxes, and 2 1/2 days of noking (sic) on doors, 500 handed out to passing people in the Addlestone North area, it would have been a lot more, but bad weather stopped me,

Crazy Crab OMRLP 

a big thank you to all 99 voters,"

If their vote share triples again next year, then Addlestone North will be one monster raving loony place.

Apart from the Loony kids on the block, the parties on offer have mainly been the mainstream three with the odd other fringe or independent candidate here and there. All in question appear to dip in and out of the fun and games when it suits them. 

Addlestone Bourneside, an even more staunchly Conservative area as yet under no threat from any surreal, existentialist lunatics, has seen a consistently higher voter turnout than its northern neighbours over the last four years. What exactly it is about the southern ward that makes it more likely to vote, I could only speculate on purely random and tentative grounds. So here I go: Bourneside has three polling stations whereas North just has two.

When I describe Addlestone as a Conservative area I refer of course to her behaviour at the ballot box. In other words, the activity of the minority who know which of their local buildings spends one day a year as a polling station and use it for that reason. Given that both Addlestone North and Bourneside were identified in 2010 by the Surrey Lifelong Learning Partnership as two areas with the greatest concentrations of people in Runnymede without a qualification to speak of, not forgetting that Bournesiders rank in Surrey's top 20 for being simultaneously out of employment, education and training, as well as for having children affected by income deprivation, you might wonder who exactly is voting for a party that pledges incessantly to slash the very same people's benefits whilst encouraging them away from Jeremy Kyle to arrange crisp packets or mark down near-expired curries. Indeed, that's what the Conservative candidate Cherith Mary Simmonds assured me was one of her priorities when she paid me a visit during her canvassing rounds, not that these are policies relevant to a local election. Call me crazy, but I suspect their support isn't coming from here:

Surrey Towers, Addlestone Bourneside

In short, the more affluent Addlestonians appear to be ruling the Addlestoners.

So what could next year have in stall for Addlestone's local election results? Well, of course it completely depends on who fancies troubling themselves to stand as a candidate. In the last County elections of 2009 the Addlestone County Division produced the following results:

Equal Parenting Alliance 2%

Labour and Co-Operative Party 10%

Lib Dems 14%

UKIP 22%

Con 51%
(Turnout: 35%)

As the current decline in support for the Conservatives is much gentler in Addlestone and surrounding areas than it is for the rest of England, a straight competition between Lib / Lab / Con will likely still see them re-emerge with a majority in Addlestone, contributing to a Tory majority in Surrey as a whole. However, if an increasingly popular UKIP plan on making an appearance again then they will most likely bring the Tories down a peg or two. Although their strong results in 2009 can be partly attributed to the EU elections on the same day, which won't be the case next year, YouGov polls in recent months show that UKIP have been consistently snatching 11-12% of 2010 Tory voters. Repeated around the county, Surrey could even end up with no overall control for the first time in 15 years for that very reason.

Of course, the big question is whether the Monster Raving Loony Party will take on the Addlestone County Division in 2013. If they do, then we'd better pray that none of the major parties decide not to join in, otherwise I foresee a George Galloway style spring in what would become the Loony heartlands of Addlestone.

Sources:

www.getsurrey.co.uk

www.runnymede.gov.uk

www.yougov.co.uk